I would very much like to believe that our nation can anticipate unlimited growth as far as the eye can see. I fervently wish that I could tell my constituents that we can fight an open-ended war, ensure the solvency of Medicare and Social Security, and provide unlimited tax cuts without jeopardizing the economic health of this nation.

But I can’t-- the numbers don’t add up. They have never added up. And I am continually surprised that in the current fiscal climate, this Committee would try obscure the ever encroaching reality that the economic policies of this body will have real and negative consequences for millions of Americans.

I am still stunned that we have fallen so far so fast. In less than a year, a surplus of $5.6 trillion shrank by $4 trillion. This is the worst fiscal reversal in American history. If you set aside Social Security, the budget projections shifted from a surplus of $3.1 trillion to a deficit of more than $700 billion.

Now comes word that federal tax revenues are coming in significantly lower rates than expected, despite assurances of an improving economy. According to the Washington Post, this fact is leading budget experts to nearly double the projected budget deficit for the current fiscal year. Individual tax receipts are running $40 billion below projections, and when all the receipts are collected, the projected deficit could be $30 billion to $70 billion higher. Moreover, next week we will also be considering the president's request for a $27 billion supplemental spending bill, further exacerbating an ever ballooning deficit. The estimates make clear that it will be much more difficult for the nation to return to budget surpluses in the next few years, and place new pressure on programs that generations of American have paid into, such as Social Security and Medicare.

It has also been suggested that current federal budgeting methods may significantly misrepresent the government’s fiscal position. If you adjust official CBO projections to separate retirement trust funds from the rest of the budget and provide a more realistic estimate, it leaves a much bleaker picture– a deficit of over $3 trillion over the next decade.

To counter this picture, many in the majority party of this body are advocating that CBO change the manner in which they estimate the budgetary effects of policy changes. They argue that lower taxes will boost economic growth, thereby eliminating the revenue loss that otherwise would be expected. Using this reasoning, deficit projections would simply disappear, along with the political head-ache that overspending will pose.

This body should know better– we’ve been down this road before. During the early eighties, proponents of this trickle-down theory insisted that huge increases in defense spending could be coupled with extensive tax cuts to yield a booming economy. The results were utterly predictable and completely devastating for many regions of the country. Deficits exploded, interest rates rose, and thousands loss their job. Many regions of the country such as my own of Rochester, New York, never fully recovered. It took some hard choices to put our fiscal house in order, choices which cost many of my colleagues their seats in Congress.

It’s tempting to justify spending policies with rosy scenarios claiming wondrous and dynamic but unproven long term effects. But it’s wholly irresponsible. Economics is a highly imprecise science. Estimating the nation-wide effects of tax policies is especially fraught with error, as evidenced by macro-economists’ sorry history of incorrect forecasts. I would also remind my colleagues that the American people in poll after poll have remained remarkably sensible about their nation’s budget. They want an honest, fiscally responsible budget plan that balances America's priorities - from support for our military, to education to a prescription drug benefit for our seniors. They want a fiscally responsible budget that would protect the economy by paying down the national debt, strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and investing in the future. That said, I look forward to hearing and reading the testimony of today’s witnesses.